This weekend we’ve got an early card on Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these early cards so that I can wake up and have a DraftKings perspiration and go out and enjoy the remainder of the day once the struggles are over. This Sunday’s card will occur in Hamburg, Germany and there are plenty of fighters producing their UFC debut. Because of this, I think we should have a big edge this week if we place in the job. Most casual players won’t be doing research on these titles they’ve never heard and will just be throwing lineups trying to get lucky and hit on a big score. I’ll be chasing the big $15k top prize in the 8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, mainly H2Hs, but I’ll be taking numerous shots at those huge prizes. Here are a Couple of plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It’s a tough card this Sunday and I think we’ll see a lot of people making errors in money games. Whenever I think I will guarantee a total 100+ points in a struggle, I love to stack it into my cash games and lock in those points. I think this fight will be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I believe we could see numerous knockdowns too that would help, but I think we easily get over 100+ points together with both of these men. Let’s let everybody else make the errors and we can lock in a 100+ points and a win, and then we just have to find another 3 wins we are convinced in.
GPP drama of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe that this matchup was put up to get Bermudez a triumph. He has quite a slick submission game and if this fight goes to the ground I think he can pick up advance points fast and find a submission. Grant has had issues with submission defense in his profession and even when he is winning the toes, he still shoots for takedowns each struggle. I believe if Manny can not get the takedown himself, Grant will gradually go to it himself and it’ll cost him. I believe we could see a 1st round submission here and that should easily get the 10x+ we are searching for in his $9.2k price label.
Underdog drama of this week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
In case Shogun can win this fight he’ll easily repay this price tag. He’s got 100-point upside and with a 7.5k salary that will surely place him on the winning lineup if he can arrive. Anthony Smith has been knocked more times than Shogun and has fought considerably worse rivalry. I would not be surprised if Shogun is able to acquire a KO here against Smith, who’s taking this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down in the past few years but I believe that he has enough in the tank to possibly pull off an upset victory here. I really do need exposure to both men in GPPs, however I think you want some exposure to Rua if you are making multiple lineups.
Fade of the week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have quite a few fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my picks being right and I will hit the right combo. It’s tough to choose one favorite fade this week however I will pick Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this fight, and I think he’ll use takedowns to acquire the decision win here. So, you would think that sounds good on DraftKings because wrestling racks up points. But, he does not chain together takedowns and that he ends up with just 1 or two in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much completing ability and I really don’t see him getting a submission. But I believe we’ll see 2-3 takedowns him and here grinding his way to a Unanimous Decision victory just as we have seen from him in the past. Hein includes 4 UFC wins and all these are his DraftKings game titles for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I am not interested in getting any DK investment on Hein with those scores. That’s why he’s my fade of the week.
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